december 01, 2007

Varning för manipulationer


Igår avslutatade Chávez kampanjen i Caracas

Läget är nervöst inför söndagens folkomröstning. Jag tror att Chávez och Ja-sidan borde vinna med minst 55% av rösterna. Opinionsmätningarna har gett spridda resultat och är oftast gjorda av partiska intressen. Avgörande blir hur de olika sidorna kan mobilisera på valdagen.

Mycket talar för att oppositionen komer avfärda valresultatet och iscensätta en plan för att försätta Venezuela i kaos. Att Venezuelas har kanske världens säkraste valsystem spelar ingen roll. Måndagen kommer antagligen att bli våldsam. Frågan är hur våldsam. Ingenting kan uteslutas. En stor varning måste utfärdas för hur massmedia kommer att beskriva händelseförloppet.

Se också detta:

WASHINGTON, D.C. - In an interview made available Wednesday, November 28, the head of a widely-cited polling firm contradicted his firm's own findings that had suggested a majority of likely voters would vote against proposed constitutional changes favored by Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez.

In an interview with Reuters posted online yesterday, Luis Vicente Leon, a pollster for Datanalisis stated, "The most probable [projection] is that there will be no surprise and Chavez will win 60 percent against 40 percent."

Datanalisis' prior survey has been the most widely cited poll in the international media in the run-up to Sunday's referendum. The poll, conducted on behalf of private businesses, and reported in the media on November 24, reported that "about 49 percent of likely voters oppose the reforms while 39 percent favor."[1]

Vicente Leon's statements directly contradict the results of the poll. If the 60/40 projection is correct, CEPR calculated that the odds of obtaining the prior poll result - i.e. 49 percent of respondents saying no -- would be one in two billion trillion.

"As a statistical matter, Mr. Vicente Leon's remarks can be considered an admission that his previous poll was not valid," said CEPR Co-Director Mark Weisbrot.

CEPR had warned just yesterday that dubious or fake polls might be used to influence public perceptions during the election.

november 15, 2007

17 dagar kvar



Med bara 17 dagar kvar till folkomröstningen om grundlagsreformen i Venezuela verkar situationen ha förbättrats lite. För bara någon vecka sedan verkade det som oppositionen skulle bojkotta folkomröstningen och istället satsa allt på att skapa kaos i landet. Våldsamheterna har dock mattats av och allt fler inom oppositionen har nu tagit ställning för att deltaga i folkomröstningen genom att rösta NEJ. Visserligen har flera politiska partier aldrig tvekat om sitt deltagande men dessa röster har censurerats av oppositionens massmedia. Nu släpps dessa röster fram vilket tyder på att de verkliga bossarna inom oppositionen har gett upp tanken på att stoppa folkomröstning med våld.

november 12, 2007

Kungen och Chávez


Incidenten på toppmötet i Chile är visserligen just bara en incident. Men den upphetsade stämning var ingen tillfällighet. Den markerar att den latinamerikanska vänstern tar för sig. I grunden handlar det om intressekonflikter. Spaniens storföretag har en historisk stark ställning att försvara i latinamerika. Men flera länder vill nu minska sitt beroende av västvärlden, bl.a genom att reglera sina marknader och i vissa fall nationalisera strategiska delar av ekonomin. Det spanska kapitalet är inte intresserat av detta.

I flera massmedier har det raporterats att den spanske kungen lämnade mötet p.g.a Chávez tal. Detta är inte sant. Kungen rusade ut från mötet i vredesmod när Daniel Ortega klagade på spanska företags inblandning i Nicaraguas valrörelse.

Dock är det sant att kungen bad Chávez "hålla käften" efter att Chávez klagat på den f.d. spanska premiärministern Aznars ständiga attacker på Venezuela. Jag gissar att Chávez i sitt inre jublade när när han upptäckte det. I 2 dagar har nu Chávez "svarat" monarken efter retorikens alla regler. "Ingen kan få tyst på oss, allra minst någon kung". "Statschefer borde respektera varandra. Och vi är båda statschefer, visserligen med den lilla skillnaden att jag blivit vald av mitt folk 3 gånger." "Herr Kung, vi kämpade ett långt krig för bli befria oss från den spanska överhögheten. Vi barn till Bolivar vägrar ta order från någon monarki. Vi är fria, vare sig ni vill eller inte.". Chávez undrade också om kungen var inblandad i statskuppen 2002. USA och Spanien var de länder som öppet stödde kuppjuntan. Relationerna mellan länderna väntas dock inte förändras nämnvärt. Båda har för mycket att förlora på det.

I Venezuela har oppositionen av ren reflex gått till "försvar" för den spanska kungen. Och Chávez-anhängarna hyllar stolt sin president och retar oppositionen för deras brist på respekt för sitt eget land.

november 03, 2007

Högerhuliganer i Caracas

I brist på folkligt stöd försöker privata massmedier och våldsamma demonstranter skapa en bild av Venezuela som ett land i kaos och missnöje. I vilket västland som helst hade dessa våldsverkare varit fängslade men i Venezuela behandlas dom med silkeshandskar. En bidragande anledning lär vara massmedias försök att presentera Chavez regering som "repressiv". Uppgifter om att 500 högerstudenter under hösten "utbildats" av CIA i Miami verkar rimliga. Målet med våldet är att producera motreaktioner från polisen som sen kan vräkas ut i privata massmedier som bevis på "repression". Polis är dock välutbildad. Demonstrationerna är en del av högerns kampanj för att stoppa folkomröstningen om ändringar i konstitutionen.

oktober 18, 2007

Venezuela når FN-mål

Venezuela avancerar.

The Venezuela government said Wednesday that it has met some of the benchmarks laid out in the United Nations’ Millennium Goals programme, which aims at reducing extreme poverty by half, much ahead of the 2015 deadline.

Planning Minister Jorge Giordani said, “Extreme poverty in Venezuela currently stands at 7.8 percent” of the population, down from 21 percent in 2002, Spanish news agency EFE reported Thursday.

Speaking at a press conference Wednesday, attended by a number of ministers as well, he said the figures show that Venezuela has reduced extreme poverty by more than 50 percent, eight years ahead of the target date.

Education Minister Adan Chavez said an existing illiteracy rate of just over four percent proves Venezuela has also met the goal of universal primary schooling.

“By 2008 we should have, if not everyone literate, all (illiterates) in the classroom environments” provided by the government’s literacy programme, the minister added, referring to an initiative that draws heavily on techniques developed in Cuba.

september 29, 2007

Chávez: 'Galbraithiano'

Visserligen är inte artikeln från The Nation tillgänglig gratis. Men jag publicerar den ändå för denna bloggs begränsade svenska läsekrets.

Chávez: 'Galbraithiano'
by GREG GRANDIN The Nation
[from the October 15, 2007 issue]

Last year, the New York Times reported that Hugo Chávez, in his
speech before the United Nations--the one in which he called George
W. Bush the Devil and urged Americans to read Noam Chomsky--expressed
regret that he hadn't had a chance to meet the linguist before he
died. A call to Mr. Chomsky's house, the Times writer quipped, found
him very much alive. The Times, though, had to issue a quick
correction when, upon review of the original Spanish, it became clear
that Chávez was referring not to Chomsky but rather to John Kenneth
Galbraith, who had indeed passed away a few months before.

There is something more than a little ironic about this incident,
where the press, in a rush to ridicule the controversial Hugo Chávez,
lost John Kenneth Galbraith in translation, for it is exactly the
Harvard economist's brand of New Deal social democracy, itself long
expunged from public discussion, that would allow for a more honest
consideration not just of Chavismo but the broader Latin American
left of which it is a vital part.

Chávez has described himself as a "Galbraithiano" and says he started
reading the economist, whose books have been available in Spanish in
Latin America since the 1950s, as a teenager. Long before he began
referring to Chomsky and other currently better-known political
thinkers, he cited Galbraith to explain his economic policies; at the
beginning of his presidency, in 1999, for example, he urged a
gathering of Venezuelan industrialists to support his mild reform
program, quoting Galbraith to warn that if they didn't, the "toxins"
generated by "extreme economic liberalism" could "turn against the
system and destroy it."

Galbraith is celebrated not just by Chávez but by a wide range of
reformers, including Ecuador's new president, Rafael Correa, himself
an economist. This popularity reflects a growing enthusiasm for the
state regulation of the economy that Galbraith prescribed. As Latin
America struggles to remedy the damage caused by two decades of
failed free-market orthodoxy--which has produced dismal growth rates
and widespread social turmoil and misery--politicians are
rehabilitating key macroeconomic principles unthinkable a decade ago.
Argentina, for example, has generated the region's most impressive
growth by lowering interest rates, maintaining a competitive currency
exchange rate, enacting price controls to stem inflation and driving
a hard bargain with international creditors, thus wiping out
two-thirds of the country's external debt and freeing up state
revenue for social spending and investment.

Galbraith has attracted admirers in Latin America not just for his
macroeconomics but for his critique of corporate monopolies. His
belief that corporations are political instruments with the incentive
and ability to corrupt democracy resonates today in a region where
much of the economy is controlled by foreign firms and where
corporate TV (which Galbraith believed had little to do with free
speech and everything to do with manufacturing consumer demand) has
become a bulwark of elite privilege. Galbraith's solution was to use
the state to set up a system of what he called "countervailing
power," enacting aggressive union protection, unemployment insurance,
subsidies, welfare and minimum wage guarantees to counter monopolies
and force a more just distribution of national wealth.

In Latin America, a similar version of democratic developmentalism
held sway in the early 1940s. Reformers from across the political
spectrum believed the region's oligarchy to be an obstacle to
modernization and thought the best way to weaken its deadening grip
was to empower those in its thrall. But the cold war cut short this
democratic experiment, as Washington threw its support behind
reactionary allies in order to insure continental stability.

Developmentalism continued into the 1970s but under the auspices of
either authoritarian or military regimes, which responded to demands
for a more equitable share of power and wealth with increasing
repression, culminating in the wave of terror that swept the region,
from Chile to Guatemala, in the 1970s and '80s. This violence, which
in many countries decimated the left, made possible the radical
free-market economics that reigned throughout Latin America during
the last two decades of the twentieth century.

The re-emergence of the Latin American left signals a revival of
democratic developmentalism, but with a key difference. While in the
1940s reformers sought to extend political power through unions and
peasant associations vertically linked to parties or leaders, today
they rely on a diverse, horizontal array of "new social movements" to
counter their countries' extreme concentration of wealth and
political power--Brazil's Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem
Terra, for example, or Bolivia's Movimiento al Socialismo, less a
political party than a coalition of social movements, or Ecuador's
powerful indigenous groups.

But it is Venezuela that has the most advanced partnership between a
state reclaiming the right to regulate the economy and a diverse
array of antineoliberal social movements. What sets Chavismo apart
from past populist experiments in Latin America is its heterogeneity.
It is impossible to spend any time in urban barrios, among co-op
members, community media and other cultural activists, or in the
countryside with peasant organizers and not be impressed with their
diversity of interests, civic investment and commitment to building a
more humane society.

The countervailing power of left civil society organizations--many
existed before Chávez's ascendance; some were founded afterward--has
turned Venezuela into a vibrant democracy and is key to understanding
not just the government's survival in the face of a series of
formidable antidemocratic assaults but its evolving program, as many
of its initiatives come not top-down but from the grassroots. Last
December a respected Chilean polling firm found that in Latin America
only Uruguayans held a more favorable view of their democracy than
Venezuelans.

The question Venezuela faces is how to institutionalize this
relationship between a fortified executive and an empowered citizenry
while protecting individual rights and limiting corruption. Debates
are under way over a series of constitutional reforms, to be voted on
in a national referendum in December, that attempt to do just that.
While the international media have focused on a proposal to remove
presidential term limits, other initiatives would greatly strengthen
community councils, created two years ago as the building blocks of
Venezuela's "participatory democracy," in charge of a range of local
issues, from education and healthcare to sanitation and road repair.
While critics see the councils as another mechanism for Chávez to
strengthen his power, the Washington Post writes that in "the
neighborhoods, it's hard to find anything but bubbling enthusiasm."

Could Chavismo devolve into old-style authoritarianism? Of course.
But the record so far indicates otherwise. For all his rhetorical
excess, Chávez has presided over an unprecedented peaceful social
revolution, doubling his electoral support in the process. Save for
Chile's Popular Unity government--which never received nearly as much
approval at the polls as Chávez's Bolivarian experiment has--it is
hard to think of another instance where such a profound reordering of
political and economic relations has been ratified so many times at
the ballot box. This is a remarkable accomplishment, for revolutions,
by their nature, tend to generate crises that drain away much of
their initial support, producing cycles of violence and repression.

This achievement is rarely reported on in the US media. Chávez often
repeats an observation by one of his favorite economists to bring
home the point. "Never before," the Venezuelan president quotes
Galbraith as saying, "has the distance between reality and
'conventional wisdom' been as great as it is today."

Greg Grandin is the author of Empire's Workshop: Latin America, the
United States, and the Rise of the New Imperialism (Metropolitan). He
teaches history at NYU.

september 28, 2007

Skön bild


Hugo Chávez inviger skola. En del av den jättesatsning som görs i Venezuela på utbildningsområdet.